Job Insight Report Q4

In my Q3 Market Insight Report, I outlined the period of growth and relative stability that we’ve experienced throughout 2024. Whether that continues into 2025 is the million-dollar question though.

Apologies if I’m telling you something you already know, but recent changes to employment law and the budget announcements have heaped billions in additional costs on to employers. These will likely be passed on to consumers through price rises driving up inflation again, or absorbed through cuts to wage bills… or probably a mixture of both.

Either way, rising inflation and the impact this has on the cost of borrowing, combined with job uncertainty and low wage growth, are generally a precursor for a stagnating economy. After all, as someone far more insightful than me once said, you can’t tax your way to economic growth.

“Thanks for spreading the Christmas cheer!”, I can hear you shout, but it’s not all bad…

As an industry we are fairly well protected against recessions, in fact some luxury food goods benefit from recessions as consumers seek to trade down their experiences without feeling like they’re missing out too much. Unfortunately, this does nothing for the hospitality industry that is still reeling from lockdowns, talent shortages and rapid wage growth.

Also, it may sound rather mercenary, but many of the commercial roles that we represent will be further insulated as businesses are likely to focus on bolstering topline growth whilst trimming the bottom line to sustain margins. This is likely to protect sales & marketing jobs and instead overly impacting operational roles.

Couple this with the fact that as an industry we’ve become quite resilient over recent years, and… in a nutshell… I’ve come to the conclusion that it could be worse. I guess that’s my glass-half-full mentality shining through though!

My departing thoughts and advice before we take a much needed break at the end of the year is:

  • No matter how well positioned we may be, we will feel the repercussions of the wider economy. Managing expectations over the next year or two will be vitally important to prevent continual disappointments.
  • Businesses are more frequently pulling workers back to the office; you may need to compromise on your flexibility if you don’t want your access to opportunities to be overly impeded.
  • Employers are getting savvy to challenges in the labour market and are increasingly wading in with counteroffers to avoid people leaving. Only consider these if you feel you misjudged your initial reasons for leaving, your employer isn’t simply trying to bide more time, and you’d be prepared to stick around considerably longer if the job landscape stagnates as projected.
  • Finally, be realistic about your salary expectations. The likelihood is that we’re moving from a period of high wage growth to one of stagnation. The days of 30% pay rises are probably long gone and if you’ve had one of these but a move is now essential, sideward steps or slight drops may be necessary. You’re only worth what someone else is prepared to pay.

Final bit of good news though…

We’re here to help and there is no one better positioned to give you the insight, support and provide the network of opportunities that will help you navigate any challenges that lie ahead.

And if all else fail, have a glass of wine! Something that I’ll be doing plenty of over the festive period.

So, if we don’t speak before, make sure you have a very Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Year. See you on the other side. 🎅

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